Markets & trends

GREENBIT works at both national and international level closely following the development in fuel markets. Fuels can be divided into different categories, such as liquid, solid, gas and electricity. GREENBIT is active in renewable liquid fuels that can be used in existing internal combustion engines.

It is all about climate change.

We help customers in the transportation segment to become more sustainable. Electrically driven road vehicles along with an infrastructure for charging these vehicles is one of the solutions to solve the need for transport. But many solutions are needed. Drop-in fuels and renewable fuels will play a big role in the transition to a green economy. Especially since heavy traffic will take many years to electrify.

Our solution is already here for existing vehicles in our existing network of stations.

We embrace that electrification is gaining momentum, but it will take more than 20 years to renew the vehicle fleet. Therefore, liquid fuels will continue to be important to the transport sector for many years to come.

Outlook 2030

Electrical mileage for heavy duty vehicles remains low, combustion engines estimated to continue its dominant position in most transportation sectors

While EV adaption will increase, the pace will be significantly slower than for cars as industrial machinery create several constrains for electric adoptation due to: – High energy consumption – Long uptime requirements – Lack of existing infrastructure

While the share of EVs in the personal car market is increasing, fossils continue to be the main fuel source. A transition to a fully electric market will take time as current infrastructure does notsupport a fully electric market.

Biofuels set to play an important role on the way to achieve net zero, share of oil products estimated to decrease substantially.

  • EA’s report Net Zero by 2050 sets out clear milestones for what needs to happen and when, to transform the global economy from one dominated by fossil fuels into one being predominantly powered by renewable energy sources

  • Transport has traditionally been heavily reliant on oil products, which accounted for more than 90% of transport sector energy needs in 2020. In IEA’s net zero scenario the share of oil drops to less than 75% in 2030 and to slightly over 10% by 2050

  • Biofuels accounted for roughly 3% of global transport energy demand in 2020 and is set to reach 17% in 2045

  • Beyond 2030, biofuels are increasingly used for aviation and shipping, where the scope for using electricity and hydrogen is more limited

Key drivers for use of biofuel:

  • Lower carbon emissions compared to fossil fuels

  • Adaptable to current engine designs and existing infrastructure

  • Made from renewable resources

Source: International Energy Agency (2021), Net Zero by 2050, IEA, Paris

Rules and

In order to increase the use of renewable fuels and reduce the climate impact, the EU has introduced the renewables directive and for the transport sector also the fuel quality directive. Member states are responsible for the implementation of these acts. Member states can set more ambitious individual objectives.


In Sweden, the requirements fall under the Sustainability Act (Hållbarhetslagen) and the Fuel Act (Drivmedelslagen). The Energy Agency is the supervisory authority for both pieces of legislation.

Sweden has also introduced requirements for fuel suppliers to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases from petrol and diesel, the so-called reduction obligation. Sweden applies separate quotas for petrol and diesel.

Due to the economic crisis and high cost for fuels the Swedish government has decided to decrease the targets to 6 percent GHG reduction from 2024-25. Present level 2022-23 is 7,8 percent (petrol) and 30,5 percent (diesel).

The greenhouse gas reduction mandate is intended to contribute to the national goal of 70 percent greenhouse gas reduction from domestic transport by 2030.

Market players are required to report and meet the criteria’s in the regulatory framework.


As a member of the EEA, Norway follows the EU regulatory framework.

Biofuel is mixed into almost all petrol and diesel sold at the country’s petrol stations. How much is mixed in varies but is always within the product requirements set.

Because petrol and diesel contain biofuel, this means that today’s sales of biofuel make an annual contribution of approximately 1 million tonnes of CO2 reductions

In Norway, we have a turnover requirement for the use of biofuel in road transport. This means that of all the fuel traded, a certain proportion must be biofuel.

“The products that Greenbit will produce will be part of the solution to this challenge as they will directly fully replace fossil fuels as well as be used as blend-in. “


Trends in Sweden

Demand for biofuels in the Swedish market will continue to be affected by two driving forces – the regulatory mix of biofuels in fossil fuels and the willingness of many large transport companies to profile themselves environmentally. In addition, private persons are increasingly demanding vehicles with less climate impact.

The Swedish regulatory framework was set for a constant increase in blending rates from 2019 to 2030. This would lead to a substantial decrease in carbon dioxide emissions. The Swedish government has decided to adjust the target level to a European level of six percent GHG savings by 2024 to 2025. It is unclear what the targets will be 2026 to 2030.

The reduction of carbon dioxide emissions can be set at a higher rate for diesel than petrol. The reason is that today there is a fully-fledged alternative to fossil-based diesel that makes it possible to set clear and achievable goals for gradually increasing the blending of biodiesel.

The development of blending biofuels into petrol is affected by the fact that there is currently only one available alternative – first-generation bioethanol. Technical restrictions imply that the maximum permitted admixture is 10 percent, which has resulted in the forecast reduction obligation being set at this level.

Trends in Norway

Drivkraft Norge is the fuel industry’s interest organization that works to improve the conditions for all types of fossil-free energy in the country. The industry’s common view is that biofuels are the best and most economical way to rapidly reduce CO2 emissions in vehicles that are powered by internal combustion engines.

The new government platform supports this by increasing the ambitions for reduced CO2 emissions in Norwegian society.

Fossil-free fuel is highlighted as a crucial factor in achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement. The platform is clear that requirements for increased volumes for fossil-free fuel must also be met with good framework conditions for biofuel production.

The Norwegian Environmental Protection Agency has identified two main challenges regarding fossil-free fuel – access to the product and the cost of the product.